How Civilisation Can Fall

It happened before. When Rome fell, Pax Romana was ended. International trade ground to a standstill while international piracy, brigandry, and warlordism prospered. It is happening in Europe now, gradually but inexorably. Let’s look at Russia:

There are ten million people in Moscow. Do you know how many of them are Muslim? Two and a half million. Or about a quarter of the population. The ethnic Russians are older; the Muslims are younger. The ethnic Russians are already in net population decline; the Muslim population in the country has increased by 40% in the last 15 years. Seven out of ten Russian pregnancies (according to some surveys) are aborted; in some Muslim communities, the fertility rate is ten babies per woman. Russian men have record rates of heart disease, liver disease, drug addiction and Aids; Muslims are the only guys in the country who aren’t face down in the vodka.

Faced with these trends, most experts extrapolate: thus, it’s generally accepted that by mid-century the Russian Federation will be majority Muslim. But you don’t really need to extrapolate when the future’s already checking in at reception. The Toronto Star (which is Canada’s biggest-selling newspaper and impeccably liberal) recently noted that by 2015 Muslims will make up a majority of Russia’s army.


Science Fiction author Orson Scott Card looks at how civilisations can fall:

What Grant finds, though, is that an international economic system that functioned smoothly throughout the Aegean and eastern Mediterranean, despite blips like the Trojan War, staggered to a complete collapse.

Starting in the late 1200s bce, a “prolonged series of destructive movements of peoples” (i.e., barbarian invasions) swept through the area. It seemed to be closely related to the fall of the Hittite empire in Asia minor, though whether the barbarian invasions toppled the Hittites, or the fall of the Hittites provided a power vacuum into which barbarians swept is hard to determine from our present vantage point.

What is unarguable is that a high level of arts and crafts staggered downward, getting shoddier all the time; meanwhile, pollen counts showed a drastic drop in crop production, suggesting an equally drastic crash in populations sustained by local farming.

Once again, as with the fall of the Roman West, there were areas that held out a little longer or that recovered more quickly. But in this case, the collapse came in an international system. In other words, it wasn’t a single empire falling, it was a mutually dependent system of neighboring nations and city-states that plunged into chaos.


In other words, an international system of economy and trade is like a house of cards that must be propped up by a protecting power. In modern times, the US protects international shipping and trade–even for its putative enemies China, Russia, Venezuela, Cuba, Iran, and the other increasingly rabid muslim states.

Although it is the goal of jihadis and leftists to topple “globalism” and the infidel hegemony, the end result of such a discontinuity would not be the results of a glorious revolution, or a religious utopia. It will be hell on earth, with chemical, biological, and nuclear weapons being used. Although leftists would deny that this is what they are working toward, nevertheless it is.

Changing demographics is an undeniable argument. Civilisation is fragile. Only a few cultures have been able to sustain it for long–and never before has it been sustained except on the back of widespread slavery. The death of western culture will be hardest on women and the weak–children and the aged. But leftists have the best of intentions when they ally with jihadis to topple free market capitalism. Surely the hundreds of millions who will die will not be their fault? Surely.


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